Africa’s mineral wealth fuels global race for critical resources

The global energy transition is reshaping the strategic value of Africa’s mineral wealth. Copper is central to electrification, while cobalt and lithium play an essential role in the performance and stability of batteries, particularly those used in electric vehicles. Their geographic concentration has now turned access to mineral deposits into an industrial, commercial and security issue.

According to an analysis published by S&P Global Market Intelligence, Africa holds a substantial share of global critical mineral reserves. The report does not put a precise figure on the continent’s overall share of reserves, but measures its weight across several key minerals.

Africa already accounts for 76% of the world’s mined cobalt and 41% of global bauxite production, and its influence is expected to grow further. By 2030, the continent could supply around 60% of the world’s lithium and 40% of its graphite. Such concentration gives producing countries an increasingly important role in global supply security.

Lithium illustrates the speed of this shift. Driven in particular by investments in Zimbabwe, African production of the mineral recorded a compound annual growth rate of nearly 160% between 2020 and 2025, the report said. The trend therefore no longer merely reflects geological potential. It points to the rapid integration of several African deposits into global industrial supply chains.

This growth does not, however, mean that Africa already controls the value chains involved. The report notes that all lithium produced in Zimbabwe and 95% of cobalt mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo are exported to China. The continent is thus becoming increasingly important as a supplier, while processing and refining remain largely concentrated beyond its borders.

China Retains the Industrial Edge

The concentration of these flows toward China reveals the true balance of power. Beijing has not merely secured access to minerals. Investments made over several decades in African productive assets have enabled it to establish a foothold across mining, processing and refining.

This head start narrows the room for maneuver of new players, because access to financing or diplomatic partnerships is not enough to rapidly reorganize an industrial chain when operating mines, commercial outlets and processing capacity are already tied to the same market.

The United States is nevertheless trying to close the gap. Since 2023, the S&P report points to an increase in Washington-backed financing for rare earth projects in South Africa, graphite projects in Mozambique, and copper, cobalt and lithium projects in the DRC.

Africa’s Weight in Critical Minerals

The U.S. effort, however, remains focused on projects still under development, while Chinese interests control a greater share of assets that are already producing. The difference is decisive. Future projects may diversify supply in the medium term, but existing operational capacity continues to channel current flows toward China.

Competition is no longer limited to the world’s two leading powers. S&P Global also notes the growing involvement of the European Union, Japan, India and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. These players are multiplying bilateral agreements to secure their own supply chains, making Africa the main destination for their exploration partnerships.

The continent therefore has a broader pool of potential investors. This competition can strengthen the bargaining power of African governments, provided it does not simply result in a proliferation of agreements granting access to mineral deposits. The challenge is to use international rivalry to secure lasting productive capacity rather than merely shift dependency from one partner to another.

The Return of Producer-State Power

African governments are seeking precisely to convert their mining weight into economic influence. Facing growing budgetary pressures since the pandemic, they are increasingly resorting to export controls, local processing requirements, and changes to taxation and royalties.

The report describes this trend as the rise of “resource nationalism.” Behind the term lies a determination to move from being mere price takers to becoming actors capable of influencing available volumes, operating conditions and the distribution of revenues.

The DRC’s decision to impose quotas on cobalt exports is the most significant example. By limiting the quantities leaving its territory, Kinshasa sought to exert direct influence over global supply. According to the report, cobalt prices jumped 150% following the announcement of the controls.

The outcome illustrates the leverage available to dominant producers. A national measure can now alter the balance of a global market when supply is heavily concentrated in a single country. Geological power then becomes commercial power.

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The strategy nevertheless involves a delicate trade-off. Restrictions can support prices and increase potential revenues, but they can also cause administrative delays and introduce uncertainty into supply chains. Global buyers may, in response, accelerate their search for alternative suppliers or reconsider their investments.

S&P Global also highlights operators’ concerns over contract revisions, changes to taxation, new royalties and public participation requirements. The assertion of mining sovereignty can therefore improve the distribution of resource rents, but persistent regulatory instability risks increasing the cost of capital needed for extraction and processing.

Corridors as Strategic Assets

Competition over minerals is being played out as much through infrastructure as through the mines themselves. Insufficient electricity networks, combined with limited road and rail capacity, raise operating costs and slow the movement of minerals to international markets.

The Lobito Corridor and the standard-gauge railway linking Tanzania and Burundi are among the projects cited in the report. Their role goes beyond transportation. These links are intended to open access to mining basins, reduce transit times and support regional trade.

The choice of routes also influences the commercial destination of resources. A corridor linking a mining area to a particular port can permanently redirect trade flows, determine logistical partnerships and strengthen the influence of the powers financing the infrastructure. Competition over minerals thus also becomes a competition to organize their movement.

This dimension nevertheless exposes African countries to the risk of logistical specialization. Roads and railways designed primarily to move minerals out of the continent may accelerate exports without promoting broader economic integration.

The report provides neither the amount of investment required nor the financial terms attached to the corridors it mentions. It therefore does not make it possible to assess their budgetary cost, their impact on debt or the share of their benefits that will accrue to local economies.

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The main shift now sought by African states concerns local processing. For decades, the continent has mainly exported raw minerals, leaving refining, manufacturing and, consequently, a significant share of the value created to other regions.

The DRC and Zambia are therefore exploring joint policies aimed at developing local refining capacity and, ultimately, battery precursor plants. The economic mechanism is clear. The more a mineral is processed before it is exported, the more it can support industrial activity, develop skills and retain a larger share of its value locally.

Success, however, remains contingent on access to capital, technology and a stable electricity supply. These three constraints are closely interconnected. Without reliable energy, processing facilities cannot operate competitively. Without regulatory certainty, long-term financing becomes more expensive. Without technology transfer, local refining risks remaining limited to the initial stages of processing.

Africa’s growing role in critical minerals does not guarantee its industrialization. The continent can become indispensable to the global energy transition while remaining dependent on foreign capital, technology, infrastructure and refining capacity.

The challenge now lies in bringing together three forms of power. Geological power rests on the importance of mineral deposits. Commercial power depends on the ability to control volumes and export conditions. Industrial power, more difficult to build, requires minerals to be processed before they leave the continent.