Morocco’s economic growth is projected to reach 4.8% in 2026, driven primarily by a significant rebound in agricultural activity, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
This forecast comes from the HCP’s 2027 Exploratory Economic Budget, which updates national economic growth estimates for 2026 and outlines the outlook for the subsequent year.
However, economic growth is expected to slow to 3% in 2027 under the assumption of average cereal production, the HCP noted.
The primary sector is anticipated to expand by 18.1% in 2026, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the national economic growth. Conversely, in 2027, this sector is projected to contract by 6.3%, reducing GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points.
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Meanwhile, growth in non-agricultural activities is expected to decelerate to 3% in 2026, down from 3.9% in 2025. This sector is then forecast to rebound to 4% in 2027, primarily supported by stronger industrial activity and the resilience of the services sector.
The HCP attributes this trend to robust domestic demand and the impact of ongoing major investment projects.
Secondary-sector activities are expected to grow by 1.1% in 2026 before accelerating to 3.7% in 2027. Their contribution to overall economic growth is projected at 0.3 percentage points in 2026 and 0.9 percentage points in 2027.
The services sector is expected to maintain its resilience, recording growth of 3.9% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027. It is forecast to contribute 2 percentage points to GDP growth in 2026 and 2.2 percentage points in 2027.
In nominal terms, GDP growth is expected to ease from 6.8% in 2026 to 4.5% in 2027, while the implicit GDP deflator is projected to rise by 1.9% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.
