Morocco’s High Commission for Planning (HCP) has published its demographic projections for the 2024-2060 period. The forecasts are based on several scenarios for future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.
Under the medium, or baseline, scenario, Morocco’s population is projected to increase from 36.8 million in 2024 to 43.3 million by 2060, representing growth of 17.8% over 36 years. This equates to an average annual increase of around 182,000 people.
According to the HCP, the annual population growth rate, estimated at 0.7% in 2024, is expected to gradually decline until it approaches zero by 2060. Morocco would therefore enter a period of near demographic stagnation after decades of continuous population growth.
The country’s urban population is projected to continue expanding, reaching nearly 32.5 million people by 2060, or roughly three-quarters of Morocco’s total population. Meanwhile, the rural population is expected to decline to around 10.8 million. The HCP notes that “this trend will intensify the challenges associated with urbanization” and calls for public policies tailored to housing, infrastructure, and social services to reduce regional disparities.
The institution also stresses the need to strengthen rural development to improve living conditions, encourage young people to remain in rural areas, and promote local resources in order to preserve the country’s social and territorial balance.
Fewer births, fewer students by 2060?
The expected decline in fertility will lead to a significant reduction in the size of younger generations. The preschool population, aged four to five, is projected to fall by 23.8%, from 1.25 million in 2024 to 960,000 in 2060. The number of children of primary school age (6-11 years) is expected to decline by 27%, from 4.16 million to 3.04 million.
Similarly, the number of children aged 12 to 14 is projected to decrease by 22.9%, from 2.08 million to 1.61 million. The population aged 15 to 17, which includes both early entrants into the labor market and secondary school students, is expected to fall by 11.4%, from 1.85 million to 1.64 million.
The HCP sees this demographic shift as an opportunity for education policy. A smaller school-age population would allow resources previously devoted to accommodating rising enrollment to be redirected toward improving the quality and performance of the education system. Reduced pressure to build new classrooms could enable greater investment in teaching quality and educational content.
The working-age population, defined as those between 15 and 59 years old, is nevertheless expected to continue growing, rising from 22.08 million in 2024 to nearly 24.96 million by 2060—an increase of 13.1%, equivalent to an average annual gain of around 80,190 people. However, this growth will vary considerably between urban and rural areas.
In urban areas, fueled by rural migration, the working-age population is projected to increase from 14.2 million to 19.1 million, a rise of 34.4%. In contrast, it is expected to decline by 25.4% in rural areas, falling from 7.9 million to 5.9 million. The HCP warns that “this trend would place additional pressure on the labor market,” particularly in cities that will need to absorb workers relocating from rural regions.
The number of people aged 18 to 24—the main group entering the labor market—is expected to decline slightly by 3.1% nationwide, from 3.89 million to 3.77 million, although the trend will fluctuate due to migration patterns.
In urban areas, this age group is projected to increase by 11.3%, from 2.47 million to 2.75 million, while in rural areas it is expected to fall by 28.3%, from 1.42 million to 1.01 million. Meanwhile, the population approaching retirement age, between 50 and 59 years old, is projected to grow by 44.9% nationwide, increasing from 3.74 million to 5.42 million. The rise will be driven by a 76.6% increase in urban areas, while the same age group is expected to decline by 17.4% in rural regions.
The HCP notes that this expansion of the working-age population will occur before the full effects of population aging are felt in the labor market. According to the projections, Morocco still has a demographic window during which the working-age population continues to grow faster than dependent age groups, including both children and older adults. That opportunity is expected to narrow gradually as the proportion of people aged 60 and over increases, making it all the more important for the country to capitalize on its available workforce before population aging accelerates.
One in four Moroccans will be aged 60 or older
The population aged 60 and above is projected to increase from 5 million in 2024 to 10.9 million by 2060, growing at an average annual rate of 2.2%. Older adults would then account for 25.2% of Morocco’s total population, compared with 13.6% in 2024, 9.4% in 2014, and just 8% in 2004—effectively tripling their demographic weight over slightly more than five decades. The increase will be particularly pronounced in urban areas, where the number of people aged 60 and above is expected to rise from 3.18 million to 8.06 million, compared with an increase from 1.81 million to 2.83 million in rural areas.
The HCP attributes this gap to two main factors. First, internal migration contributes to population aging in urban areas, as working-age people relocate to cities and generally remain there into old age. Second, higher mortality rates in rural areas slow the growth of the elderly population outside cities.
The population aged 70 and above is expected to grow even more rapidly. Its numbers are projected to triple, increasing from 2.06 million in 2024 to 6.3 million by 2060, representing an average annual increase of around 118,000 people. In urban areas, the number of residents aged 70 and above is forecast to rise by 256%, from 1.25 million to 4.44 million, while rural areas would see a more moderate increase from 810,000 to 1.86 million.
The HCP links this trend to the decline in fertility that began in 1975, marking the start of Morocco’s demographic transition, as well as to lower mortality rates and, to a lesser extent, migration. Generations born from 1975 onward will begin reaching old age around 2035, mechanically accelerating population aging in the decades that follow.
Public policies must adapt now
The institution warns that faster population aging will increase the dependency ratio—the number of older people and children relative to the working-age population. This will create significant challenges for pension financing, healthcare services for an aging population, and the preservation of family and intergenerational solidarity, at a time when urbanization and rural migration are weakening traditional support networks.
The HCP concludes that “population aging is becoming a structural and lasting trend,” regardless of the scenario considered. It argues that Morocco must begin adapting public policies now, in education, employment, regional planning, and social protection, to prepare for a future in which population growth slows while the population ages more rapidly.
