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Morocco’s economy is expected to maintain its growth momentum in the second half of 2026 despite an energy shock triggered by the war in Iran, with GDP growth forecast at 4.1% in the third quarter and 4.7% in the fourth, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).

Morocco’s inflation rate has remained subdued in 2026, with average price growth limited to 0.3% during the first eight months of the year. The slowdown is expected to continue through the end of 2026 before inflation picks up in 2027, when Bank Al-Maghrib forecasts a rate of 1.5%, mainly as the impact of favorable harvests on food prices fades.

Morocco is entering a new phase of economic policymaking as the government prepares the 2027 budget, with purchasing power, employment, investment, water, housing, social protection and business competitiveness all competing for limited fiscal room.

At an average of 0.3% over the first eight months of 2026, Morocco’s inflation rate remains officially low and is expected to reach 0.7% for the full year. Yet households continue to feel the squeeze, especially when it comes to meat, fruit, vegetables and transport. Economist Khalid Doumou explains why the inflation rate does not always reflect the prices consumers are actually paying and what could lie ahead in 2027.

Inflation is expected to remain subdued this year despite energy price pressures, while underlying inflation is projected to accelerate through 2027.

Food prices increased 0.9% over the month, while underlying inflation rose 0.2% from July and 0.1% year-on-year, according to an HCP publication.

Inflation has eased and growth remains firm, giving the central bank room to wait for earlier cuts to work through the economy while keeping an eye on oil and geopolitical risks.

Gold prices declined in Asian trading on Friday, July 24, after falling nearly 2% in the previous session. This dip occurred as oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel, fueling inflation concerns and strengthening expectations of further U.S. interest rate hikes.

As required under Morocco’s Organic Law on Finance Laws, Minister of Economy and Finance Nadia Fettah on Wednesday presented Parliament with a detailed update on the implementation of the 2026 Finance Law, the framework for preparing the 2027 Finance Bill, and the country’s 2027–2029 medium-term budget program.