Morocco’s economy is expected to accelerate in the third quarter of 2026, with growth projected to reach 5.4% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in the previous quarter, according to the latest economic outlook published by the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
The HCP said the stronger performance would be supported by a recovery in domestic demand, improving global trade conditions and a gradual broadening of growth drivers across several sectors.
Agriculture is expected to remain a key contributor to economic activity, with the sector projected to expand by 19.9% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year. At the same time, manufacturing output is forecast to rise by 1.8%, helped by stronger external demand.
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The extractive industries are also expected to benefit from improving international conditions, particularly the recovery in foreign demand for fertilizers, easing tariffs on the U.S. market and stronger demand from India and Japan.
Meanwhile, the services sector is expected to maintain its momentum, posting annual growth of 4.4%. Household consumption is set to remain the main engine of growth, rising by 4.9% after expanding by 4.7% in the second quarter.
According to the HCP, improving incomes and favorable financing conditions, coupled with easing inflationary pressures, should continue to support consumer spending. Inflation is expected to average 1.2% in the third quarter, down from the 1.7% peak recorded in April, assuming that Brent crude prices remain around $85 per barrel.
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Productive investment is also forecast to gather pace, growing by 11.1% compared with 9.4% in the previous quarter, driven by increased spending on port, road and water infrastructure projects.
Despite the improved outlook, the HCP warned that foreign trade would continue to weigh on economic growth. While exports are expected to increase by 10.2%, largely due to stronger phosphate derivatives sales, imports are projected to grow even faster, at 12.4%, reflecting robust domestic demand.
The institution noted that risks surrounding the forecast remain tilted slightly to the downside because of geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on energy prices, international trade and production costs. Nevertheless, it said Morocco’s outlook continues to be supported by the recovery in agriculture, resilient domestic demand and favorable monetary conditions.
