Cheaper food has kept a lid on inflation this year, holding price growth to just 0.3pc over the first eight months even as soaring energy costs rattled markets elsewhere.
Bank Al-Maghrib expects inflation to average 0.7pc for the whole of 2026 before picking up to 1.5pc next year, when some of the forces keeping prices down begin to wear off.
Underlying inflation is forecast at -0.2pc this year before climbing to 2.2pc in 2027, as the drag from falling food prices—olive oil in particular—fades and imported inflation remains relatively high.
Energy has so far packed less of a punch at home than the surge in international prices might suggest.
BAM said subsidies for road transport professionals have helped contain the pass-through to domestic prices, while butane gas and electricity prices have been kept unchanged.
Lower prices for some food products pulled average inflation down to 0.3pc between January and August, leaving the full-year rate on course for 0.7pc.
BAM expects the contraction in the food component to fade, stripping away one of this year’s main brakes on underlying inflation. Imported price pressures, meanwhile, are expected to remain relatively high.
Financial-sector experts are looking somewhat further ahead—and their numbers sit above BAM’s forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
Those surveyed by the central bank in the third quarter expect inflation to average 2.1pc over the coming eight quarters and 2.2pc over a 12-quarter horizon. BAM nevertheless said inflation expectations remain well anchored.
