A bumper harvest will do much of the heavy lifting for the economy this year, with Bank Al-Maghrib expecting agricultural output to surge 16pc and help keep overall growth at 4.4pc despite a marked slowdown outside the farm sector.
BAM sees economic growth dropping to 2.9pc in 2027 as cereal production returns to more ordinary levels and agriculture gives back some of this year’s gains.
The projections, released after the central bank board met on Tuesday, put this year’s growth below the 4.9pc recorded in 2025.
Agriculture is providing the cushion. The Agriculture Ministry estimates this year’s cereal harvest at 93 million quintals, helping push agricultural value added up by a hefty 16pc. Outside agriculture, however, the economy has lost some steam.
Non-farm growth is expected to slow sharply from 4.5pc last year to 3.1pc in 2026, with extractive and manufacturing industries turning in weaker performances than BAM had expected.
BAM is working on the assumption that cereal production will fall back to an average crop of 50 million quintals—barely more than half this year’s harvest. Agricultural value added would consequently contract 7.6pc.
Non-farm activity, meanwhile, is expected to regain some ground and grow 4pc in 2027.
It would not be enough to make up for the swing in agriculture, leaving overall economic growth at 2.9pc next year.
