Tax revenue is expected to continue rising, strengthening its contribution to public finances. It is forecast to reach MAD 423.5 billion in 2027, up 15.6% from the previous year. According to the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Public Administration, this increase follows a period of strong growth in government revenue, driven in particular by higher collections from major taxes, continued tax reform and improved collection mechanisms.
Between 2021 and 2025, ordinary government revenue grew by an average of 13.1% a year, rising to more than MAD 195 billion above its 2020 level, according to the economic and financial report accompanying the 2027 Finance Bill. Over the same period, ordinary revenue increased from 19.9% to 24.7% of GDP, a gain of 4.8 percentage points.
This growth was driven mainly by tax revenue, which accounted for an average of 81.5% of ordinary revenue between 2021 and 2025. Its share nevertheless fell from 83.8% in 2021 to 80.6% in 2025, as non-tax revenue grew more quickly, supported in particular by innovative financing mechanisms and contributions from public institutions and state-owned companies.
Excluding the share of VAT allocated to local authorities, tax revenue grew by an average of 11.5% a year between 2021 and 2025. Growth covered all major categories of taxes and duties, with average annual increases of 13.4% for corporate income tax (CIT), 10.2% for personal income tax (PIT) and 11.8% for value-added tax (VAT).
Other categories also recorded significant increases. Revenue from the domestic consumption tax (TIC) rose by an average of 8.7% a year, while customs duties and registration and stamp duties increased by 12.6% and 12.5%, respectively. As a share of GDP, tax revenue rose from 16.8% in 2021 to 19.9% in 2025.
In 2025, tax revenue growth accelerated, rising by 14.7% compared with 2024. The ministry attributes this performance to the continued implementation of tax reform, particularly through broadening the tax base, strengthening fairness and improving oversight.
Measures introduced under the Finance Bill included withholding at source for certain taxes, the introduction of a VAT self-assessment mechanism, the gradual expansion of the tax and the streamlining of tax incentives. Voluntary tax regularization and stepped-up tax audits also contributed to higher revenue.
By tax category, CIT revenue rose by 28.6% in 2025. PIT revenue increased by 9.4%, supported in particular by voluntary tax regularization, which generated MAD 3.8 billion in January 2025. VAT revenue rose by 9.3%, driven by increases in collections on imports (+8.2%) and domestic transactions (+11.5%).
TIC revenue increased by 13.8%, including a 15.7% rise in the tax on energy products and an 11.7% increase in the tax on tobacco. Customs duties grew by 12.9%, while registration and stamp duties rose by 10.1%.
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The upward trend continued in 2026. Tax revenue increased by 11.7% to MAD 288.33 billion at the end of September, according to the statement of Treasury resources and expenditure published by the Ministry of Economy and Finance. CIT was the main driver, recording a 24.8% increase, while PIT revenue rose by 2.2%.
The change in PIT revenue reflects a base effect. An exceptional MAD 3.8 billion was collected by the end of September 2025 through the voluntary tax regularization measure introduced under the 2024 Finance Law. Excluding this operation, PIT revenue would have increased by 10.4%.
VAT revenue rose by 8.4%, with increases in both VAT on imports (+8%) and domestic VAT (+9%). TIC revenue grew by 6.5%, including a 9.7% increase in the tax on tobacco and a 3% rise in the tax on energy products.
Customs duties increased by 8.7%, while registration and stamp duties rose by 11.8%.
Tax revenue to account for 90% of ordinary revenue in 2027
For 2027, the Finance Bill forecasts net ordinary revenue of MAD 470.1 billion, excluding the share of VAT transferred to local authorities. This represents an increase of 8.6% compared with the projections in the 2026 Finance Law. Tax revenue is expected to reach MAD 423.5 billion, equivalent to around 22% of GDP and 90.1% of projected net ordinary revenue.
Direct taxes are expected to be the largest source of tax revenue, with projected collections of MAD 202 billion. This represents 10.5% of GDP and 47.7% of total tax revenue. The category is forecast to grow by 23% compared with the projections in the 2026 Finance Law.
CIT revenue is projected at MAD 124.8 billion, up 32.2%. PIT revenue is expected to reach MAD 71.3 billion, an increase of 10.6%. Together, the two taxes would account for most of the direct tax revenue expected in 2027.
Indirect taxes are forecast to generate MAD 173.2 billion, up 8.4%. VAT would make up the largest share of this category, with projected revenue of MAD 125.3 billion. Domestic VAT revenue is expected to reach MAD 48.6 billion, up 12.2%, while VAT on imports is forecast at MAD 76.7 billion, an increase of 8%.
Tax revenue trends, in MAD millions, from 2015 to 2027. Source: Ministry of Finance.
| Category | 2015–20 average | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 Finance Law | 2027 Finance Bill | Change 2026–27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax revenue | 198,789 | 262,566 | 298,304 | 342,056 | 366,508 | 423,512 | +15.6% |
| Direct taxes | 90,609 | 116,504 | 135,657 | 161,897 | 164,228 | 201,999 | +23% |
| PIT | 40,213 | 50,656 | 59,734 | 65,376 | 64,522 | 71,342 | +10.6% |
| CIT | 46,955 | 61,952 | 71,062 | 91,367 | 94,464 | 124,845 | +32.2% |
| Indirect taxes | 84,105 | 109,637 | 125,794 | 139,160 | 159,745 | 173,157 | +8.4% |
| VAT | 56,690 | 76,857 | 89,335 | 97,653 | 114,355 | 125,324 | +9.6% |
| TIC | 27,415 | 32,780 | 36,459 | 41,507 | 45,390 | 47,833 | +5.4% |
| Customs duties | 9,058 | 16,436 | 15,198 | 17,160 | 18,532 | 20,182 | +8.9% |
| Registration and stamp duties | 15,018 | 19,989 | 21,655 | 23,840 | 24,003 | 28,174 | +17.4% |
TIC revenue is expected to reach MAD 47.8 billion in 2027, an increase of 5.4%. Most of the revenue would come from the tax on energy products, projected at MAD 23.3 billion, and the tax on manufactured tobacco, expected to generate MAD 19.3 billion.
Customs duty revenue is forecast at MAD 20.2 billion in 2027, up 8.9% compared with the projections in the 2026 Finance Law. It is expected to account for 4.8% of total tax revenue.
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Registration and stamp duties are expected to reach MAD 28.2 billion, an increase of 17.4% year on year. This would make them one of the fastest-growing tax categories in 2027, after CIT.
Finally, non-tax revenue is forecast at MAD 43 billion, representing 9.1% of projected ordinary revenue. It would come mainly from payments by public institutions and state-owned companies, estimated at MAD 28 billion, and the sale of state holdings, which is expected to generate MAD 6 billion.
The projected revenue structure for 2027 confirms the dominance of tax receipts, with CIT, PIT and VAT accounting for a significant share. Non-tax revenue is also expected to contribute, mainly through payments from state-owned companies and the sale of government holdings.
