The latest World Tourism Barometer, published by UN Tourism in the second half of September, paints a picture of a tourism industry under pressure. Some 690 million tourists traveled internationally between January and June, just 3 million more than a year earlier, for global growth of 0.4%.
The first quarter had posted 2% growth, but international arrivals fell 1% in the second quarter. April and June each recorded a 3% global decline, with sharper drops in some markets. Western Europe was down 6% in June, Southeast Asia fell 5% and Oceania dropped 6%.
The conflict in the Middle East, volatile oil prices, inflation and higher transportation costs all weighed on demand.
Africa nevertheless recorded 4% growth in international arrivals in the first half, ahead of Europe at 3%, the Americas at 2% and Asia-Pacific at 1%. The Middle East suffered a 22% decline.
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But arrivals tell only part of the story. Tourism revenue was another area of strength for Africa, with Mozambique up 22%, Mauritius 18%, Morocco 16% and Gambia 12%.
The four countries followed very different paths, however, and the figures need to be read in the context of their respective tourism models and the availability of reliable data.
The four African countries with the fastest relative tourism revenue growth in H1 2026
| Country | Revenue growth, H1 2026 vs. H1 2025 | H1 2026 revenue | H1 2026 arrivals | Key details and limitations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mozambique | +22% | Not available | Not available | International tourism revenue rose 78.8% in Q1 2026 from a year earlier. Tourism accounted for 4.02% of GDP in 2023. An estimated 1.7 billion meticais, or about $26.6 million, was generated during the 2025-26 festive season. Limited statistical data makes it difficult to assess the base effect, sustainability and distribution of the growth. |
| Mauritius | +18% | 55.8 billion Mauritian rupees , up from 47.4 billion, or about $1.23 billion | +1% in H1; -4% in Q2 | The Bank of Mauritius confirms strong revenue growth. The island’s high-end, long-haul tourism model remains dependent on air connectivity. Capacity cuts by Middle Eastern carriers have affected Indian Ocean destinations. |
| Morocco | +16% | MAD 64.9 billion , or about $7.05 billion | +6% in H1; North Africa +3% | Travel receipts rose 15.9% year-on-year. The gap between 6% growth in arrivals and nearly 16% growth in revenue points to changes in spending per visitor or the composition of stays. |
| Gambia | +12% | Not available | Not available | UN Tourism reported strong growth in tourism revenue, but no mid-year budget aggregate provides an absolute tourism-revenue figure. The available data does not make it possible to separate real growth from inflation or exchange-rate effects. |
Source: UN Tourism.
The figures represent the percentage change in tourism revenue in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. They should not be confused with growth in visitor arrivals, absolute revenue in local or U.S. currency, market share or hotel occupancy. They measure the change in tourism receipts, not the size of the tourism industry in each country.
A more expensive, less predictable tourism market
Economic pressures were the biggest concern cited by respondents to UN Tourism’s Panel of Tourism Experts for 2026, including volatile oil prices, inflation, weak growth and higher transportation and accommodation costs.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a benchmark for crude oil prices, rose from $67 a barrel on February 27 to $113 on April 7 before falling below $70 at the end of June and climbing back to around $80-$90 in July.
The conflict in the Middle East ranked as the third-biggest concern after having been the top concern in May. Some 53% of experts said it was having a negative impact on demand for their destinations, down from 64% in May. Of those surveyed, 39% described the impact as moderate and 14% as high, while 47% said the effect was limited or nonexistent.
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Confidence for September-December 2026 nevertheless improved, reaching 113 out of 200, above the 105 recorded for May-August. UN Tourism has, however, cut its forecast for global tourism growth in 2026 to 1%-2%, down from the 3%-4% forecast in January.
Travelers have responded by looking for better value, choosing destinations closer to home or opting for domestic travel.
African airlines carried 9% more international passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger-kilometers (RPK), during the first half. That was among the strongest performances globally, alongside Latin America and the Caribbean, which posted 10% growth.
International air capacity, however, fell 0.6% worldwide, dragged down by a 20% decline in the Middle East. Gulf carriers reduced capacity, affecting several Indian Ocean destinations. Seychelles saw arrivals fall 14% in the first half and 20% in the second quarter.
Mauritius was up just 1% in arrivals over the six-month period and fell 4% in the second quarter, highlighting the importance of air connectivity to island destinations.
Morocco combines stronger arrivals with faster revenue growth
Morocco stands out among the four countries for combining solid growth in arrivals with an even stronger increase in tourism receipts.
North Africa recorded 3% growth in arrivals during the first half, with Morocco up 6%. Travel receipts reached MAD 64.9 billion, according to Morocco’s Foreign Exchange Office, equivalent to about $7.05 billion and 15.9% more than a year earlier.
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UN Tourism rounds the figure to 16%.
The gap between 6% growth in arrivals and nearly 16% growth in receipts suggests that spending per visitor or the composition of tourist stays may have increased. As some travel flows shifted away from the Middle East, Morocco benefited from its proximity, accessibility and diverse tourism offering.
Mauritius illustrates a different side of the trend. Gross tourism receipts reached 55.8 billion Mauritian rupees, compared with 47.4 billion a year earlier, an increase of 17.9%, broadly matching UN Tourism’s 18% figure.
Yet arrivals rose just 1% in the first half and fell 4% in the second quarter.
The Bank of Mauritius has confirmed the strength of tourism receipts, but the sector remains vulnerable to changes in air connectivity. Capacity cuts by Middle Eastern carriers have affected Indian Ocean destinations.
Mauritius has performed better than Seychelles, but its high-end, long-haul model remains exposed to transportation costs and airline capacity. Stronger revenue growth does not necessarily mean stronger visitor flows.
Mozambique’s sharp rise comes with a data gap
Mozambique recorded the strongest tourism revenue growth among the four African countries, at 22%, according to the UN Tourism Barometer. But there is no comparable absolute revenue figure for the first half of the year.
The available data shows a 78.8% increase in international tourism receipts in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier. Tourism accounted for 4.02% of GDP in 2023, while an estimated 1.7 billion meticais, or around $26.6 million, was generated during the 2025-26 festive season.
The available figures point to strong growth, but limited statistical data makes it difficult to determine the impact of the base effect, assess how sustainable the increase is or establish how tourism revenue is distributed.
Gambia completes the group with 12% growth in tourism receipts, according to the UN Tourism Barometer. Here too, no absolute revenue figure was available for the first half of 2026.
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Available sources indicate strong growth in tourism revenue or spending, but mid-year budget reports do not provide a comparable aggregate. That makes it difficult to determine how much of the increase reflects real growth and how much may be linked to inflation or exchange-rate movements.
Africa gains ground despite uneven tourism performance
The four countries are part of a broader African trend. International arrivals increased 6% in sub-Saharan Africa and 3% in North Africa during the first half, bringing growth across the continent to 4%.
South Africa recorded a 12% increase in arrivals. African airlines carried 9% more international passengers in RPK terms.
Hotel occupancy, however, remains lower in Africa than in other major regions. Occupancy stood at 58% in June, compared with 77% in Europe, 68% in the Americas and 63% in Asia-Pacific. The global rate was 68%.
The figures show that rising tourism revenue does not necessarily translate into full hotels or uniform profitability across destinations.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said the latest figures showed a sector absorbing significant pressure but continuing to grow. She cautioned that the growth remained fragile and that the impact of the Middle East conflict had extended well beyond the region.
Global and African tourism snapshot, H1 2026
| Indicator | Value / change | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Global international arrivals | 690 million | Up 3 million from H1 2025; global growth of 0.4% |
| Global quarterly trend | Q1: +2% ; Q2: -1% | April: -3% ; June: -3% globally |
| Regional declines in June | Western Europe: -6% ; Southeast Asia: -5% ; Oceania: -6% | Pressures included the Middle East conflict, oil volatility, inflation and transport costs |
| Regional arrivals, H1 2026 | Africa: +4% ; Europe: +3% ; Americas: +2% ; Asia-Pacific: +1% ; Middle East: -22% | Africa recorded the strongest growth among the major regions |
| African sub-regions | Sub-Saharan Africa: +6% ; North Africa: +3% | South Africa: +12% ; Morocco: +6% ; Mauritius: +1% in H1 and -4% in Q2; Seychelles: -14% in H1 and -20% in Q2 |
| Air traffic | Africa: +9% RPK ; Latin America and Caribbean: +10% | International air capacity: -0.6% ; Middle East: -20% |
| Hotel occupancy, June 2026 | 68% worldwide | Europe: 77%; Americas: 68%; Asia-Pacific: 63%; Africa: 58% ; Middle East: 53% |
| WTI crude oil | $67 on Feb. 27; $113 on April 7; below $70 in late June; $80-$90 in July | Benchmark crude oil price, in U.S. dollars per barrel |
| Global tourism forecast for 2026 | +1% to +2% | Down from the +3% to +4% forecast issued by UN Tourism in January |
| Confidence index | 113/200 for September-December 2026 | Above the 105 recorded for May-August |
Source: UN Tourism.
Mozambique, Mauritius, Morocco and Gambia therefore represent four very different tourism stories. Morocco is combining rising visitor numbers with stronger growth in receipts. Mauritius is relying on a high-end island model that remains highly dependent on air links. Mozambique has posted spectacular growth but lacks comparable revenue data. Gambia is also growing rapidly, although the level of revenue remains difficult to establish.
Together, they illustrate a broader shift in African tourism during a period of weak global growth. The continent is attracting more visitors and generating stronger tourism receipts, but the gains remain exposed to oil prices, inflation, air connectivity and geopolitical shocks.
