Sahara: from denial to the brink — how the Polisario’s refusal to negotiate is hastening its own demise

Brahim Ghali, chef de la milice du Polisario.

Brahim Ghali, Polisario militia chief. AFP or licensors

After yielding to mounting pressure and rejoining the negotiation process based on United Nations Security Council Resolution 2797, the Polisario Front is now attempting a last-ditch obstruction. Gripped by fears of its own dissolution, acting under the directives of an increasingly cornered Algerian patron and facing the prospect of being designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. Congress, the Tindouf-based militia is sinking ever deeper into a political deadlock with no apparent exit.

On 22/07/2026 at 17h12

After displaying repeated signs of agitation, political inconsistency and hesitation, the Polisario Front has now opted for outright diplomatic confrontation.

According to informed sources, Le360 has learned that the separatist militia is attempting to block the negotiation process over the Moroccan Sahara by formally rejecting the internationally established framework: United Nations Security Council Resolution 2797, adopted in October 2025, and the autonomy plan under Moroccan sovereignty, which that resolution now enshrines as the one and only solution to the conflict.

This obstruction amounts to a desperate and self-contradictory posture.

When this landmark resolution was adopted, the Polisario reacted with vehement rejection before subsequently reversing its position and agreeing, however reluctantly, to sit at the negotiating table under the joint auspices of the United States and the United Nations.

The sequence of events points to a remarkably nervous about-face.

From January 19 to 23, 2026, a Polisario delegation quietly traveled to Washington aboard an aircraft placed at its disposal by the Algerian presidency. U.S. officials responded with unwavering firmness, reminding the delegation that the autonomy plan constituted the sole basis for negotiations.

At the end of January 2026, a first preparatory round of direct negotiations opened in Washington under the impetus of U.S. diplomacy.

On February 8 and 9, 2026, the talks moved to the U.S. Embassy in Madrid. Under the supervision of the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy, Staffan de Mistura, and White House envoys, notably Massad Boulos, Senior Adviser for Africa, Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania and the Polisario sat face-to-face. During those discussions, the Kingdom presented an updated and more detailed version of its autonomy proposal.

On February 23 and 24, 2026, a second high-level round was again held in Washington to consolidate the framework governing the negotiations.

Having submitted to this diplomatic timetable, the Polisario is now making an abrupt U-turn by refusing to discuss the very subject of those negotiations: the practical implementation of the autonomy plan.

The Polisario’s conduct cannot be dissociated from that of its sponsor, Algeria.

Today, through media outlets and influencers close to the authorities, Algiers is attempting to rewrite history by claiming it “never refused” to participate in the negotiations.

This revisionist narrative, however, collides head-on with the regime’s own official diplomatic record.

On October 30, 2020, following the adoption of Resolution 2548, Algeria issued an official statement seeking to reduce its role to that of a mere “official observer,” rejecting its status as a party to the conflict.

In 2021, an official declaration relayed by the state news agency APS informed the United Nations of Algeria’s “irreversible” rejection of the round-table format.

Capitulation Before Washington

Despite those repeated outbursts, the Algerian regime ultimately had no choice but to yield to the balance of power imposed by Washington.

On January 27, 2026, Massad Boulos landed in Algiers, where he held direct talks with Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf and President Abdelmadjid Tebboune.

Behind the carefully crafted language of the official communiqués, the American envoy delivered what amounted to a formal injunction: Algeria had to rejoin the multilateral process.

Under pressure, Algiers did indeed dispatch Ahmed Attaf to the Madrid meeting on February 8 and 9, 2026, while attempting to conceal the significance of his participation from domestic public opinion by presenting the trip as nothing more than a bilateral visit.

This diplomatic capitulation before Washington adds to a growing list of setbacks suffered by Algeria in its confrontations with major European powers.

After waging an exceptionally virulent campaign against Spain following Madrid’s endorsement of the autonomy plan in March 2022 and later against France, Algiers ultimately retreated across the board.

Having been forced back into the process through the front door, is Algeria now attempting to escape through the window by activating its proxy?

While both the reference framework—Resolution 2797—and the subject of the negotiations—the autonomy plan—have now been clearly established by the international community, the Polisario has adopted an attitude of outright refusal.

According to our source, this irrational behavior is driven by two imperatives rooted in survival and manipulation.

First comes the fear of self-erasure.

The successful implementation of Morocco’s autonomy initiative would seal the political death warrant of the Polisario Front.

For the nomenklatura in Tindouf, agreeing to negotiate the modalities of the Moroccan plan would amount to signing its own dissolution.

Faced with the irreversible loss of its supposed legitimacy, the separatist leadership sees the ground slipping from beneath its feet.

It would mark the programmed end of its financial privileges, its entrenched rents and its institutional existence.

Then comes the injunction—and the sabotage—orchestrated from Algiers.

Unable to openly assume a direct confrontation with the U.S. administration, the Algerian regime is instrumentalizing its militia, our source adds.

Algiers’ objective is to play for time in the illusory hope that the international context might evolve before the adoption of the next UN Security Council resolution, while quietly sabotaging the U.S.-UN process behind the scenes.

It is a cynical double game that allows the Algerian patron to tell foreign diplomats that it bears no responsibility and that the Polisario alone is “digging in its heels.”

Meanwhile, the Noose Is Tightening

By choosing rigidity and obstruction, the Polisario is committing a major strategic mistake.

Far from slowing the international momentum, this refusal provides yet another demonstration—if any were still needed—of its absolute bad faith and further accelerates its criminalization on the international stage.

While the militia agitates in Tindouf, an unprecedented legislative offensive continues to gather momentum on Capitol Hill in Washington.

Introduced in the House of Representatives by Republican Congressman Joe Wilson and backed in the Senate through bill S.4063, sponsored by Senator Ted Cruz, two legislative initiatives seek to formally designate the Polisario as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).

The momentum continues to build.

On July 9, 2026, the House of Representatives registered the significant support of two leading Republican figures: Scott DesJarlais, a prominent conservative lawmaker, and Matt Van Epps, a former elite special operations commander and West Point graduate.

Their backing brought the number of co-sponsors to sixteen legislators.

Another indication that major powers are already preparing for a post-Polisario era is that the United States and the broader international community are actively laying the groundwork for what comes next.

Should the Polisario Front Terrorist Designation Act become law, the separatist movement would be legally excluded from any negotiating table and subjected to sweeping financial sanctions.

To fill that vacuum and definitively end the Tindouf militia’s self-proclaimed monopoly over Sahrawi representation, Washington is now increasingly highlighting credible and pragmatic alternatives, foremost among them the Sahrawi Movement for Peace (MSP).

In that regard, the meeting held on Tuesday, June 30, at the headquarters of the U.S. Mission to the United Nations between U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz and an MSP delegation is telling in more ways than one.

By choosing obstruction in the face of Resolution 2797, the Polisario is doing nothing more than hastening its own downfall.

Locked into outdated Cold War paradigms and beholden to the calculations of an Algerian regime that has itself been forced into concessions, the separatist front has become ensnared in its own trap.

International diplomacy is now moving forward without it, leaving Tindouf to confront growing isolation and an accelerating process of criminalization.

By Tarik Qattab
On 22/07/2026 at 17h12