The study examined a severe thunderstorm that hit Rome-Fiumicino Airport on December 13, 2024. The event lasted around three hours and caused at least eight flight diversions, along with delays and holding patterns.
Researchers compared atmospheric conditions similar to those during the storm across two periods, 1979-2000 and 2002-2023. They found that while the large-scale circulation patterns associated with such events have remained broadly similar, the environment in which they develop has become warmer.
Air temperatures have increased by around 1 to 2 degrees Celsius across large parts of the Mediterranean, while sea surface temperatures have risen by about 1 degree Celsius in the areas examined. The researchers also found changes in wind shear, precipitation, atmospheric instability and wind gusts.
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“The most important result that emerged from our work is that the atmospheric configurations that generate these events have not necessarily changed, but the climatic context in which they act has changed,” said Tommaso Alberti, an INGV researcher and the study’s first author.
A warmer Mediterranean can provide more heat and moisture to the atmosphere, increasing the energy available for the development of intense thunderstorms. These storms can bring heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts and reduced visibility, all of which can affect flight operations.
The December 2024 storm is particularly significant because it occurred during winter. According to Alberti, the heat accumulated by the Mediterranean during the summer can persist into the following months, helping maintain conditions favorable to convection into the fall and winter when other atmospheric ingredients are present.
The study also found that weather conditions observed at Rome-Fiumicino during similar atmospheric situations have changed in recent decades. Mean and maximum wind speeds were higher during 2002-2023 than in 1979-2000, while dew-point temperatures increased and visibility decreased.
These changes are significant for aviation. Strong and variable winds can complicate takeoffs and landings, while heavy precipitation and reduced visibility can force aircraft to divert or wait before landing.
Disruptions at major hubs can also affect airports well beyond the area directly hit by a storm. Europe’s highly interconnected air transport network means that a reduction in operations at a major airport such as Fiumicino can trigger delays and diversions elsewhere.
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The researchers stressed that the findings do not mean thunderstorms will necessarily become more frequent everywhere. Instead, similar atmospheric circulation patterns could occur in a warmer and more energetic environment, potentially making individual events more disruptive.
“If the Mediterranean continues to warm, it will be plausible to expect potentially favorable conditions for the formation of more intense thunderstorms, both during the summer and in the subsequent autumn and winter months,” Alberti said.
The researchers plan to extend the analysis to future climate scenarios to assess how severe convection and its impact on major Mediterranean aviation hubs could evolve, with the aim of helping improve adaptation and resilience in air transport.
