A historic turning point is taking shape in New York. The first draft of the Western Sahara resolution, drawn up by the United States in its role as penholder, marks a fundamental shift in the UN Security Council’s approach to the dispute. Backed by Washington’s diplomatic drive, the text leaves little room for ambiguity: it recasts the terms of a political settlement from the ground up, establishes Moroccan sovereignty as the overriding principle and brings the existing peacekeeping framework to an end.
Autonomy as the only way forward
The draft rewrites the UN’s approach to the dispute by ruling out alternative solutions. Autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is no longer presented merely as a “serious and credible” option. It becomes the only credible political way forward. The Council “considers that genuine autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty constitutes the only feasible solution to the Western Sahara question that is just, lasting and mutually acceptable, consistent with the Charter and principles of the United Nations.” In establishing that principle, the Security Council acknowledges the shift in international diplomatic alignments, noting “the support of a growing number of Member States for Morocco’s autonomy proposal.”
The draft closes the door on alternative arrangements for the territory’s status, including a referendum. Rabat’s expanded and updated autonomy plan becomes the sole framework for negotiations, with US diplomacy driving the process under the White House’s direct leadership. The text welcomes “President Trump’s leadership regarding the settlement of the Western Sahara conflict” and takes note “of his call for the parties to engage without delay, using Morocco’s autonomy proposal as the sole framework for negotiating a mutually acceptable solution.”
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That position is carried through into the draft’s operative provisions, which state that the Moroccan proposal “would constitute the sole basis for continuing these discussions.” The Council also “calls upon the parties to cooperate fully with the facilitators, to engage actively and constructively using Morocco’s autonomy proposal as the sole basis for negotiations, and to submit responses based on that autonomy proposal.”
MINURSO to give way to MINUSO
In perhaps the clearest sign that the era of the status quo is drawing to a close, the UN mission would change both its name and its purpose. The longstanding acronym would be retired, with the word “referendum” removed in favor of a mandate explicitly focused on reaching a political settlement.
The Council “decides that the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) shall be renamed the United Nations Mission for a Political Solution in Western Sahara (MINUSO).” The change would bring the UN’s operational presence into line with the political framework established by the resolution.
The draft also sets an expiry date for the current peacekeeping arrangement. Citing MINURSO’s strategic review, which acknowledges that “the Mission’s mandate reflects tasks that have not been implemented for more than two decades,” the Council calls for a fundamental overhaul of the international presence. It “decides that the Mission’s peacekeeping mandate shall terminate on 30 April 2027, and that, effective 1 May 2027, the Mission shall continue as a special political mission until 31 October 2027.”
To prepare for the transition, the draft sets a tight planning deadline, “requesting the Secretary-General to submit to the Council, no later than 15 December 2026, detailed proposals concerning the mandate, structure, staffing and resource requirements of the special political mission...”
The institutional overhaul would be accompanied by a substantial drawdown on the ground. The aim is to bring UN resources into line with the new political framework while consolidating the mission’s field deployments.
The draft orders a sweeping 50% reduction in the military presence. Specifically, it “directs the Secretary-General to begin without delay a phased withdrawal, including a reduction of at least 50 percent of authorized uniformed personnel by 31 January 2027, as well as the closure and consolidation of team sites.”
UN refugee agency pressed to end the silence over Tindouf’s population
On the humanitarian front, the draft takes an unusually tough line on the long-running situation in the camps in Algeria. It states that the deteriorating conditions in Tindouf “cannot responsibly be sustained” and gives the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) a firm deadline.
It “requests the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to complete the registration of the refugee population in the Tindouf area within six months, in accordance with international law, in particular international refugee law, and consistent with UNHCR practice and standards, without interference from any entity, and calls upon all parties concerned to ensure unhindered access and freedom of movement for this purpose...” The provision is intended to end decades of uncertainty over the population of the Tindouf camps by ensuring a rigorous registration process conducted directly and free from interference.
To head off obstruction or delaying tactics, the draft introduces an explicit means of putting pressure on parties unwilling to cooperate in a passage that points to the Polisario without naming it. The Security Council openly deplores “the lack of substantive engagement by one party in the negotiations” and condemns “the attack of 5 May 2026 against the city of Es Semara,” which was claimed by the separatist front.
Enough is enough. The Council “expresses its intention to consider further measures should the parties fail to engage constructively in the political process.”
Building on Resolution 2797 of October 31, 2025, while breaking with it on several crucial points, this first draft of the 2026 resolution redraws the political map of the Sahara dispute. By making autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty the only basis for a settlement, renaming MINURSO and setting April 30, 2027, as the end of its peacekeeping mandate, the Security Council is seeking to force a decisive acceleration towards a final resolution of the conflict.
The Polisario, reeling from the blow, has already responded. Stunned by the uncompromising language of the draft, the movement struck a posture of helplessness mixed with bluster in an urgent letter sent on Thursday, October 22, 2026, to the Security Council president, Greek diplomat Aglaia Balta. In the letter, the separatist leadership denounced the proposal as a “grave and unprecedented departure,” accusing the penholder of “aligning itself entirely with the Moroccan position.”
Unable to come to terms with the geopolitical shift under way in New York, Polisario diplomacy clings anachronistically to Resolution 690 of 1991 and the original settlement plan, accusing the United States of “distorting MINURSO’s mandate.” That diplomatic denial betrays the shock of an organization caught in a tightening vice, watching decades of rhetoric collapse under the weight of an international consensus now firmly behind the Kingdom’s sovereignty.
Having already declared any autonomy-based approach “unacceptable,” the movement has gone so far as to threaten a “complete withdrawal from the peace process.” This final attempt at blackmail sounds more like a petulant tantrum in the face of reality than a show of strength. In doing so, the Polisario isolates itself still further, effectively vindicating the Security Council’s assessment of its failure to engage and signing its own death warrant.
