The gradual return to dialogue between Washington and Tehran has provided a measure of relief to global markets. But according to Coface’s latest report, the diplomatic breakthrough does not signal an immediate return to normal. More than 15 weeks of conflict have severely disrupted one of the world’s most important trade arteries, leaving lasting effects on logistics flows, transportation costs, and global energy markets.
The report notes that the conflict lasted far longer than initially expected, fundamentally altering supply conditions for many economies. Although military risks have eased, the accumulated disruptions are expected to weigh on businesses for months as global supply chains gradually recover.
For an economy such as Morocco’s, which depends heavily on international trade, these findings carry particular significance. Imports of energy, raw materials and industrial components remain vulnerable to developments along major global shipping routes, while Moroccan exporters continue to face higher maritime transport costs and longer delivery times.
The report highlights the Strait of Hormuz as a critical transit point for oil and petroleum products. Disruptions during the conflict demonstrated how the concentration of global energy flows through a handful of maritime corridors represents a structural vulnerability for the world economy.
That dependence extends well beyond the Middle East. According to Coface, very few countries escaped the impact of the disruptions, particularly in Southeast Asia and along Africa’s eastern seaboard. The widespread geographic reach of the shock illustrates the high degree of interconnectedness within global value chains.
For Morocco, situated at the crossroads of maritime routes linking Europe, Africa and the Atlantic, the situation also underscores the strategic importance of port and logistics infrastructure in safeguarding trade.
Persistent tensions weigh on global growth
Coface says the global economy has so far weathered the crisis thanks to inventories built up before the conflict and a gradual adjustment in demand. That resilience, however, is beginning to fade.
The report identifies early signs of a broader slowdown driven by production stoppages across several industries, persistent inflationary pressures and tighter financial conditions. Together, these factors are limiting governments’ room for maneuver just as demand for economic support is increasing.
Against that backdrop, Coface has revised its global growth forecast for 2026 down to 2.3%. Combined downward revisions for 2026 and 2027 total 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a gradual deterioration in the global economic outlook rather than a one-off shock.
The outlook deserves close attention in Morocco, where economic performance remains closely tied to demand from its main trading partners—particularly in Europe—as well as to international investment flows.
The report points to the disruption of global logistics as one of the conflict’s most visible consequences. It says the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused maritime traffic to collapse, with only 145 vessels recorded in May compared with more than 3,300 a year earlier.
The unprecedented contraction led to longer delivery times, higher logistics costs and early signs of supply shortages across several industries. In response, many companies have begun rebuilding precautionary inventories to secure production.
While that strategy strengthens operational resilience, the report notes that it also weakens companies’ cash flow and profitability. Financing needs are rising at a time when credit conditions are tightening, creating financial pressures that could increase corporate distress.
That deterioration helps explain the expected rise in business failures. Coface forecasts global insolvencies will increase by 6% this year, with particularly sharp rises in the United States, France and Japan.
Uneven economic impact across regions
The report emphasizes that the effects of the crisis vary significantly by region.
The Gulf economies are expected to be the hardest hit because of their heavy reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, while the eurozone is projected to bear the brunt of higher energy prices and weaker domestic demand. Coface forecasts eurozone growth of just 0.7%.
In the United States, renewed inflationary pressures are emerging as a major drag on growth. Inflation rose from 2.4% in February to 4.2% in May, eroding purchasing power among lower-income households and weighing on consumer spending.
Asia presents a more mixed picture. Some industries, such as South Korea’s semiconductor sector, have posted exceptional export growth, with shipments up 153% since the beginning of the year. Other industries, however, continue to face sustained pressure on profit margins.
Emerging economies are primarily grappling with renewed inflation and tighter monetary policy. The report cites Brazil, where the benchmark interest rate has reached 14.5%, illustrating the economic cost of maintaining price stability.
Broad-based downgrades point to higher global risk
One of the report’s key findings is the simultaneous deterioration in both country and sector risk assessments.
Coface announced eight country downgrades and 45 sector rating changes, including 41 downgrades and only four upgrades. The scale of the revisions suggests a more widespread deterioration than would typically accompany a cyclical slowdown.
“The easing of tensions in the Middle East is welcome news, but it should not obscure the bigger picture. The disruptions already embedded in the global economy will continue to weigh on activity, income, and employment,” said Jean-Christophe Caffet, Coface’s chief economist.
He added that the 41 sector downgrades across 19 countries reflect the global impact of the conflict on trade flows and corporate profitability.
While the update does not alter Morocco’s own country risk assessment, it highlights the increasingly challenging environment facing Moroccan businesses. A combination of slower global growth, persistently high logistics costs and continued fragmentation of international trade is forcing companies to adapt their industrial and commercial strategies.
Although the easing of tensions in the Middle East has reduced the immediate risk of an energy crisis, the report stresses that the economic consequences of a major conflict extend well beyond the end of hostilities. For Morocco, the challenge is no longer simply managing a temporary shock but adapting to an international environment in which geopolitical risks have become a lasting feature of economic performance.
