Morocco’s pharmaceutical trade deficit is projected to widen further, reaching 13.4 billion dirhams by 2030, as imports continue to outpace exports significantly.
Despite reforms aimed at improving medicine access and accelerating generic drug entry, lower customs duties and increased health spending are expected to maintain pressure on the country’s pharmaceutical import bill.
A new market analysis by BMI, a Fitch Solutions subsidiary, indicates that imports are growing considerably faster than exports. This trend, coupled with reduced customs duties and an expanded health budget, is expected to further boost foreign purchases.
In 2025, Morocco’s pharmaceutical exports remained relatively flat at 1.6 billion dirhams, showing only a 1.2% year-on-year increase in local currency. Imports, however, surged by 17.4% to 11.9 billion dirhams, significantly surpassing the earlier forecast of 10.8 billion dirhams.
This upward trend persisted into 2026. By the end of July, imports of medicines and other pharmaceutical products had climbed 14.8% to 8.59 billion dirhams, according to the latest figures from the Office of Foreign Exchange.
Consequently, the pharmaceutical trade deficit reached 10.3 billion dirhams in 2025, exceeding the previously forecast 9.2 billion dirhams, BMI reported. The firm estimates that the gap between pharmaceutical imports and exports will continue to expand in the coming
years, with imports consistently growing faster than exports, according to its latest projections.
Generics remain an underused lever
Morocco’s pharmaceutical market continues to expand. Medicine sales are projected to increase by 7.8% to 38.6 billion dirhams in 2026, representing a 7.8% growth in local currency.
By 2030, sales could reach 46.3 billion dirhams, with an average annual growth of 5.3% over the five-year period. This growth is expected to be sustained by rising per-capita spending and greater market penetration.
BMI believes that the reform of Morocco’s Medicines and Pharmacy Code could gradually alter this trajectory. Bill No. 27.26, adopted by the House of Councillors on June 22, 2026, significantly expands the responsibilities of the Moroccan Agency for Medicines and Health Products in authorization, monitoring, inspection, and pharmacovigilance.
This legislation also aims to support Morocco’s application for Level 3 regulatory maturity under the World Health Organization (WHO) framework, which corresponds to a stable and functional regulatory system for the authorization and safety monitoring of health products.
The reform further paves the way for a review of the 2015 decree governing marketing authorizations (MAAs). One key objective is to reduce authorization timelines, which BMI notes are particularly long for Moroccan generic drug manufacturers.
Current MAA procedures can take an average of three years, significantly exceeding the regulatory target of nine to twelve months. This situation disadvantages Moroccan manufacturers, especially when competing with companies like those in India for access to African markets.
Despite these challenges, the generic drug sector is expected to continue expanding. Sales could reach 20.7 billion dirhams by 2030, with an average annual growth of 6.3% between 2025 and 2030. Faster authorization procedures could eventually strengthen local production and curb the growth of imports.
In the short term, however, government measures are likely to continue favoring imports. The 2026 Finance Law reduced customs duties on 112 essential medicines from 30% to 2.5%, with partial reductions also introduced for 10 other products.
Measures with conflicting effects
This decision followed supply shortages that affected over 600 medicines in 2025. The reduction in customs duties is intended to facilitate market supplies and support public purchases of medicines.
Higher health spending is reinforcing this trend, according to BMI. The health budget increased by 30% in 2026 to a record 42.3 billion dirhams, enhancing the state’s capacity to finance medicine purchases and meet the needs of the health system.
However, the tariff policy also includes measures to protect domestic pharmaceutical production. Customs duties on 34 pharmaceutical products were raised to safeguard local manufacturers, which, in the short term, limits the potential for replacing imported products with locally produced alternatives.
This creates a clear tension between two objectives. Measures designed to improve the availability and affordability of medicines can inadvertently increase reliance on imported products. Therefore, expanding local production and accelerating market access for generic medicines will be crucial to gradually reversing this trend.
