New geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly affecting the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world’s crude oil and a significant share of refined petroleum products pass, have triggered another spike in crude prices, pushing a barrel of oil above $100 once again. More worrying, however, is the surge in fuel prices, which have now become disconnected from crude oil prices. As a result, the price of a ton of diesel has surpassed $1,450, a level never before reached in the history of the market.
As a result, announcements of higher prices at the pump are becoming widespread across Africa, with the exception of certain countries where prices are regulated by authorities and kept at very low levels, such as Libya and Algeria. Togo was the latest country to sharply raise its fuel prices on Friday, September 11. The price of unleaded gasoline rose by 12.7% to 817 CFA francs (€1.25), while diesel increased by 2.1% to 766 CFA francs and two-stroke fuel rose by 10.5% to 896 CFA francs.
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Before Togo, South Africa raised gasoline prices by 1.29 rand per liter, or around $0.19, and diesel prices by 3.15 rand on September 2. Morocco adjusted its diesel price on September 1, 2026, increasing it by 0.65 dirhams per liter to 15.01 dirhams per liter, while unleaded gasoline remained at around 14.94 dirhams per liter. Earlier, on August 1, Côte d’Ivoire once again raised fuel prices, increasing both unleaded gasoline and diesel by 25 CFA francs per liter. Senegal also revised fuel prices on August 15, 2026, raising super gasoline by 7.6% to 990 CFA francs and diesel by 11% to 755 CFA francs.
The list of countries that have raised prices at the pump is long. There is good reason for that: 32 African countries depend on hydrocarbon imports. Between March and August 2026, their combined energy bill increased by $22 billion.
The situation is not limited to Africa. The price surge is global. In the United States, a gallon of diesel, equivalent to 3.8 liters, reached $5.85, surpassing the previous record set in 2022.
Beyond rising prices at the pump, some countries are also facing the prospect of fuel shortages. Unlike developed countries, which maintain strategic reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports of oil or refined products, African countries generally lack such stockpiles. Few have storage facilities capable of holding reserves for more than two months.
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Nigeria and Angola, Africa’s two largest oil producers, have been the biggest beneficiaries of rising oil prices, earning an additional $7.5 billion and $4.5 billion, respectively, over a six-month period. Libya, with $3.3 billion, Algeria with $2.8 billion, Congo with $1.5 billion and Gabon with $800 million have also benefited from the rise in oil prices.
What explains this latest rise in prices at the pump when a barrel of oil has only just crossed the $100 mark? Last spring, the price of a barrel exceeded $120, its highest level since March 2022, following the invasion of Ukraine, yet prices at the pump did not reach their current levels. The latest increases are the result of a combination of factors.
First, they stem from an imbalance between global supply and demand for refined products. Geopolitical tensions have affected global refining capacity. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have significantly reduced the global supply of refined products. Russia, which once exported fuel, particularly diesel, has become an importer. The resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of refineries in the region. As a result, beyond the reduction in crude oil supplies, refining capacity has also declined sharply, with no immediate way to make up for the shortfall.
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Adding to these factors is the fact that Europe, which has lost a third of its refining capacity over the past 15 years, is particularly exposed to shortages of refined products. This has led to shortages, particularly of diesel and kerosene. Refinery capacity constraints have pushed refining margins to historically high levels. As a result, analysts believe fuel prices at the pump will remain high even if crude oil prices fall.
The price at the pump does not depend directly on the price of a barrel of crude oil, but rather on the market price of the finished product, to which transportation, distribution and tax costs are added.
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Rising fuel oil costs are also pushing up the price of imported fuels. At the same time, geopolitical tensions are driving up insurance premiums, which in turn affect the cost of imported refined products. Finally, for African countries with weaker currencies, exchange rates against the dollar can significantly increase import costs when local currencies depreciate against the greenback.
According to David Bird, managing director of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, in a statement to Reuters, global fuel shortages will persist even after the conflict between the United States and Iran ends. He cites three reasons: the already high utilization rate of global refining capacity before the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war, delayed maintenance operations and damage to Gulf refineries, and the need for many countries to rebuild their strategic fuel reserves to ensure security of supply.
This latest surge in the price of black gold is benefiting some African oil-exporting countries. However, the disconnect between the price of crude oil and refined petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel and kerosene means that African oil-producing countries without refineries are not really benefiting from soaring fuel prices.
Unfortunately, Africa, which has around 10 oil-producing countries, is being hit particularly hard. Even African oil producers, with a few rare exceptions, are major importers of refined petroleum products because of insufficient refining capacity. Even in countries that have refineries, most of them state-owned, they are often not operational. This is the case in Nigeria, where three public refineries have been out of service for years despite the country being Africa’s largest crude oil producer.
As a result, the biggest beneficiary of the situation is not an oil-producing state, but Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote and his mega oil refinery in Lagos.
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Having become fully operational just weeks before the U.S. bombing of Iran, the $20 billion refinery saw demand surge, becoming the world’s largest exporter of kerosene in April and May 2026. Better still, in June and July, it became Europe’s leading supplier of kerosene and diesel, overtaking the United States for the first time in the aviation fuel market, according to S&P Global Energy. In June and July 2026, it shipped 466,000 tons, or 582.5 million liters, and 400,000 tons of kerosene, respectively, to Europe, accounting for one-fifth of the continent’s imports over the period.
Meanwhile, sales to Africa reached nearly 120,000 barrels per day of refined products during the second quarter of 2026, helping reduce African countries’ dependence on imports from European and Gulf refineries.
As for African countries that import fuel, they face a dilemma: protect consumers or preserve public finances. Raising prices at the pump quickly affects transportation, production and the cost of living. However, to avoid social tensions fueled by inflation, governments often choose to subsidize fuel. While this cushions consumers against a sharp rise in prices at the pump, it comes at the expense of state budgets. Rising subsidy costs can also come at the expense of funding for infrastructure, education, healthcare and productive investment.
Faced with this dilemma, African countries must direct their investments toward renewable energy by focusing on solar, wind and hydropower to reduce their energy bills.
