The European avocado market is entering a period of rebalancing that is changing the rules of the winter season. After several seasons marked by supply pressures, the 2026/27 season could see Chile, Colombia, Israel, Spain and Morocco simultaneously supplying the main import markets, creating more intense competition than in previous years.
According to the report, combined shipments from these five origins could reach around 500 million kilograms between weeks 40 and 12, equivalent to nearly 5 million 4 kilogram cartons per week for 25 weeks. This volume can theoretically be absorbed by the European market, but the balance will now depend more on the timing of arrivals than on the total volume available.
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This shift represents an important change for Morocco. Previous seasons were often driven by periods when certain suppliers temporarily dominated the market. The study explains that winter works differently from the summer season, which is largely dominated by Peru: several producers compete simultaneously for European outlets, increasing the risk of overlaps between their peak harvest periods.
Timing becomes a competitive advantage
The increased competition does not mean that all countries have the same advantages. Chile is expected to open the season with a record harvest of 280,000 tonnes, around 100,000 tonnes of which is destined for Europe, while Colombia could see its production rise by around 25%, despite uncertainties over fruit sizes and quality.
Israel is also preparing for an exceptional season. According to the report, its production could reach 300,000 tonnes, compared with around 240,000 tonnes a year earlier, with export potential of up to 165,000 tonnes, including nearly 100,000 tonnes of Hass avocados.
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This increase in Israeli supply directly reshapes Morocco’s export window. Israeli volumes are expected to be concentrated mainly between weeks 51 and 12, leaving Morocco with a particularly favorable commercial opportunity between weeks 45 and 51.
Morocco’s main commercial advantage this year lies in the quality of its harvest. According to the study, Moroccan producers have abundant output, with a broad range of fruit sizes, mainly sizes 14 to 22, a characteristic that could become a decisive advantage on European markets.
Larger sizes, particularly sizes 14 and 16, appear to be less common among several competitors. This scarcity could allow Moroccan exporters to obtain better value for part of their production in market segments where retailers specifically seek larger fruit.
The opportunity remains fragile, however. The most common sizes, between 18 and 22, will account for most of the marketed volumes and will have to be sold gradually to prevent an accumulation of supply on the European market.
Commercial discipline becomes as important as production
The analysis highlights a point that is rarely emphasized during agricultural campaigns: the risk no longer comes only from the harvest, but also from operators’ commercial behavior.
The report notes that Morocco exported relatively small volumes at the beginning of the previous season. This year, such a strategy could prove more costly. January and especially February are expected to see simultaneous arrivals from Israel, Colombia and Spain, which will automatically reduce Moroccan exporters’ room for maneuver.
This outlook has led the authors to recommend more consistent marketing from the start of the season. Securing orders early would not only help maintain continuity in sales, but also prevent operators from deliberately delaying shipments in the hope of obtaining better prices, a practice that could ultimately worsen market imbalances when competing volumes arrive.
This season comes as avocados are playing an increasingly important role in Morocco’s horticultural exports. The sector benefits from geographical proximity to Europe, short logistics times and the ability to respond quickly to European retailers’ programs.
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The investment announced by Unique Packing illustrates this industrial momentum. The company plans to put a new packing station into operation, capable of handling up to 70 additional trucks per week, thereby strengthening its ability to manage larger volumes throughout the season.
This increase in capacity does not, however, guarantee better economic performance on its own. The report concludes that the 2026/27 winter season will probably be determined less by the quantity available than by how well it is managed: honoring commercial commitments, maintaining regular shipments and controlling the timing of deliveries will be the main factors determining competitiveness.
For Morocco, the stakes therefore go beyond the success of a single season. If exporters can turn their agricultural advantage into commercial discipline, they could strengthen their credibility with European buyers over the long term in a market where supply consistency is becoming just as decisive a criterion as production volume.
